Four pricing engines rate every game, compare their number with the bookmaker's fair price, and flag the gaps. A human reviews each one before it's published to members.
Elo, Poisson and a 13-factor Expert model each rate the game, then a calibrated blend combines them.
We convert the market's odds to a fair, no-vig probability so their built-in margin doesn't distort the comparison.
When our number beats the market's by enough, the game is flagged with a confidence and value tier.
Every flagged game is checked by hand. Only approved picks are published to members, and every result is graded after the game.
Rating, scoring and 13-factor models are blended on calibrated log-odds. No single model makes the call on its own.
Ratings update after every final, models refit daily, and each slate is priced against live market odds.
Once a published pick's game starts, it's locked. Wins and losses go on the record, so you can judge the results for yourself.
Elo ratings replayed from every result since 1999, plus play-by-play efficiency, rest, travel and injury signals.
Ratings rebuilt on 30,000+ games since 2002, with possession-based efficiency, schedule spots and availability signals.
Ratings built on 23,000+ games since 2008, with shot-based strength, goaltending, special teams and rest signals.
Monthly subscriptions in USD. Cancel any time from your account.
Every pick we publish is graded after the game and shows up here — wins and losses, at the odds we published, one unit flat. Nothing is deleted or edited once the game starts. NHL goes first on Sep 29, then NBA on Oct 20.
NHL's regular season starts Sep 29. Join now and your first picks land in the portal as soon as they're approved.